This proposal attempts to follow in Allan Birnbaum's tradition by using Bayesian ideas to show that his mental test model possesses even broader applicability than previously realized. Birnbaum's two significant contributions to the theories of statistics and educational testing are: (1) the proof that the sufficiency and conditionality principles…

A Bayesian argument is used to suggest modifications to the Robertson and Jones relevance weighting formula to accommodate the addition to the query of terms taken from the relevant documents identified during the search. (Author)

Since its release in 1976, LOGIST has been the most widely used computer program for estimating the parameters of the three-parameter logistic item response model developed by A. Birnbaum. An alternative program, BILOG, developed by R. J. Mislevy and R. D. Bock (1983), has recently become available. This paper compares the approaches taken by the…

This article compares three models that have been the foundation for approaches to the analysis of statistical significance in early childhood research--the Fisherian and the Neyman-Pearson models (both considered "classical" approaches), and the Bayesian model. The article concludes that all three models have a place in the analysis of research…

The classification problem in educational testing is a decision problem. One must assign subjects to one of several available treatments on the basis of test scores, where the success of each treatment is measured by a different criterion. Examples of classification decisions include individualized instruction, counseling, and clinical settings.…

Examines a statistical model in which the users of an online system continually update their estimated probability of success, and quit or continue the search according to the expected utility of each action. The implications for search strategies are discussed. (Author/EM)

The incremental validity of the analytical measure of the revised Graduate Record Examination (GRE) General Test, for predicting first-year graduate grade-point average (GPA), was assessed using data submitted to the GRE Validity Study Service between March 1983 and November 1984. All selected students had data for the three General Test measures…

The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a two-way contingency table, and for drawing inferences about the marginal and interaction effects, cell parameters, and conditional probabilities. The prior distribution expresses uncertainty in a simple reduced model, in particular the independence model. The posterior estimates of the…

Presents two statistical topics and examples of their use in natural resource monitoring. The first topic deals with use of correlated observations in calculations of variance estimates for a regional mean, required sample size determination, and confidence intervals. The second topic concerns the use of Bayesian techniques in hypothesis testing.…

The decision making processes of children in a probabilistic environment were studied within the context of the theory of signal detection (TSD). The relationship between the age of the child and his ability to revise decision criteria was examined, as well as the appropriateness of TSD measures and methodology with children. It was hypothesized…

Comments are made on the review papers presented by six Dutch psychometricians: Ivo Molenaar, Wim van der Linden, Ed Roskam, Arnold Van den Wollenberg, Gideon Mellenbergh, and Dato de Gruijter. Molenaar has embraced a pragmatic viewpoint on Bayesian methods, using both empirical and pure approaches to solve educational research problems. Molenaar…

The focus of this study is on the estimation procedures implemented in BILOG, a computer program. One purpose is to compare the item parameter estimates produced by various procedures available in BILOG. Four different models are used: the one, two, and three parameter model and a three parameter model with common guessing parameters. The results…

Nedelsky (1954) has suggested a procedure for determining the minimum passing score on a multiple-choice test. In this procedure expert judges estimate the probable score of a minimally competent examinee. The technique does not refer to the students' performance data. The purposes of this paper are: (1) to introduce a modification to the Nedelsky…

During 1975-1979 this research into the potential of computerized adaptive testing to reduce errors in the measurement of human capabilities used Marine recruits for a live-testing validity comparison of computerized adaptive and conventional tests. The program purposes were to: (1) identify the most useful computer-based adaptive testing…