Doubly robust (DR) estimators that combine regression adjustments and inverse probability weighting (IPW) are widely used in causal inference with observational data because they are claimed to be consistent when either the outcome or the treatment selection model is correctly specified (Scharfstein et al., 1999). This property of "double…

Although social scientists devote considerable effort to mitigating measurement error during data collection, they often ignore the issue during data analysis. And although many statistical methods have been proposed for reducing measurement error-induced biases, few have been widely used because of implausible assumptions, high levels of model…

We extend a unified and easy-to-use approach to measurement error and missing data. In our companion article, Blackwell, Honaker, and King give an intuitive overview of the new technique, along with practical suggestions and empirical applications. Here, we offer more precise technical details, more sophisticated measurement error model…

Examines and rejects common criticisms of the causality concept; shows causality is a relation implied in the grammar of a language about objects. Discusses objective criteria for concepts of causal relations and explains how the concept of causality may be modified to have causes determine probabilities of outcomes. (Author/RH)

Examined the problem-solving performances of novices (11 undergraduates) and experts (9 graduate students and instructors), comparing them in terms of background expertise and problem-solving success. Also examined problem-solving behaviors reported in other domains and determined whether or not genetics is a fruitful area for problem-solving…

The purpose of the study was to determine whether students had knowledge of the extension rule (the conjunction of two or more events cannot be greater than the probability of any one of those events) and understanding of conjunction by giving a test of multiplicative probabilities. Involved were 598 students enrolled in introductory psychology…

In the educational research literature alpha, the a priori level of significance, and p, the a posteriori probability of obtaining a test statistic of at least a certain value when the null hypothesis is true, are often confused. Explanations for this confusion are offered. Paradoxically, alpha retains a prominent place in textbook discussions of…

Four experiments investigated college students' judgments of inter-event contingency. Subjects were asked to judge the effect of a discrete response (tapping a wire) on the occurrence of a brief outcome (a radio's buzzing). Pairings of the possible event-state combinations were presented in a summary table, an unbroken time line, or a broken time…

The explicit, experimental introduction of a series of logical inconsistencies is described and recommended as a means of disrupting the faulty logic and, thereby, enhancing the use of more appropriate probabilistic reasoning by graduate students enrolled in an introductory inferential statistics course. (14 references) (JJK)

This paper identifies typical sampling problems, including improper application of the Central Limit Theorem, that are associated with the probability-based sampling procedures currently used in clinical psychology research. It then presents two alternative research designs, the theory validation model and the extended case study model, which…

Describes a study to determine middle school children's representational strategies to form part-whole or part-part relationships for relational numbers such as proportions, ratios, or fractions. Quantitative and qualitative analysis revealed that children prefer a part-part representation to solve relational quantity problems. (15 references)…

Forty-eight students with no previous exposure to probability or statistics read one of three textbooks that varied in emphasis placed on rote and conceptual learning of basic elementary probability concepts. Findings, among others, show students who read textbooks emphasizing conceptual learning tended to be less sensitive to surface features.…

Related research suggests that children may show some simple understanding of event covariations by the early elementary school years. The present experiments use a rule analysis methodology to investigate covariation judgments of children in this age range. In Experiment 1, children in second, third and fourth grade judged covariations on 12…

Past research indicates poor agreement about strategies people use to assess covariation between events. This research investigates method of assessment as one possible source of this low consensus. A set of problems was developed in such a way that different judgment rules would produce different decisions about the relationships between events.…

Four strategies used in judgment patterns were explored. Problem sets in which each solution strategy produces a unique solution pattern are depicted. Several experiments had been conducted using rules in this way with subjects from grade 4 through college. Problems were set in the context of concrete events which could be related, and subjects…