Proposes a probabilistic mechanism to describe various forms of the Bradford phenomenon reported in bibliographic research. The inclusion of a time parameter in the model to allow predictions of dynamic systems is explained. (58 references) (CLB)

Several steps are taken to develop methods for analyzing systems that involve probabilistic causation. The basic ideas and distinctions are illustrated for systems with dichotomous variables. It is shown that these basic ideas have analogous counterparts in causal systems with continuous variables. By using a generalized conditional probability…

Introduces a new model of viewing documents based on citing-cited relationship between them. Using Bayes' decision theory, it is shown how source document may be indexed and weighted by relevant cited document features, corresponding to one pass relevance feedback Model 1 (probabilistic indexing) or Model 2 (probabilistic retrieval). (24…

Presents adaptation of a probabilistic theoretical model previously used in relevance feedback for use in automatic indexing of documents (in the sense of imitating) human indexers. Methods for model application are proposed, independence assumptions used in the model are interpreted, and the probability of a dependence model is discussed.…

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

Features and tools to outline and shape the long-term learning process for ratio are presented, with examples. Ratio-anticipating activity and creating visual models and schemes are stressed, with the basis for a theory of teaching and learning ratio presented. (MNS)

A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a two-way contingency table, and for drawing inferences about the marginal and interaction effects, cell parameters, and conditional probabilities. The prior distribution expresses uncertainty in a simple reduced model, in particular the independence model. The posterior estimates of the…

Proposes approach to integrating Boolean and statistical systems where Boolean queries are interpreted as a means of specifying term dependencies in relevant set of documents. Highlights include series of retrieval experiments designed to test retrieval strategy based on term dependence model and relation of results to other work. (18 references)…

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)

The decision making processes of children in a probabilistic environment were studied within the context of the theory of signal detection (TSD). The relationship between the age of the child and his ability to revise decision criteria was examined, as well as the appropriateness of TSD measures and methodology with children. It was hypothesized…

Uses the various strategies involved in baseball to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Specifically discusses Willie Mays' base-stealing strategy and how it relates to probability and risk. Reminds students that expected results depend on adopted assumptions. (MJP)