Presents a mathematical model of a decision maker subject to goal uncertainty which shows that a dominant course of action will always emerge. The theory of multivalued functions is used to express goal uncertainty, and a specific example is described to provide insight into how the procedure works in practice. (Author/EM)

Focuses on the role of the computer system in group decision making. Two systems used in solving negotiating problems--NEGO and MEDIATOR--and three procedures that can be utilized to develop group decision support systems are analyzed, based on multicriteria decision analysis and mathematical programming models. (Author/LRW)

Summarizes earlier research in the theory of information flow and its application to practical situations and to the relationship between information and the user's knowledge state. A model for creating information profiles is presented which mathematically represents changes in decision making effectiveness as a function of specific documents.…

The decision making processes of children in a probabilistic environment were studied within the context of the theory of signal detection (TSD). The relationship between the age of the child and his ability to revise decision criteria was examined, as well as the appropriateness of TSD measures and methodology with children. It was hypothesized…

Uses the various strategies involved in baseball to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Specifically discusses Willie Mays' base-stealing strategy and how it relates to probability and risk. Reminds students that expected results depend on adopted assumptions. (MJP)

Policy Analysis and Simulation System (PASS) is an interactive microcomputer model that can be used by educational administrators, policy-makers, and planners to simulate and forecast, under conditions of environmental uncertainty, the impact of strategic policies on the projected trends and goals of educational performance. PASS generates…

The development of a planning/budgeting model as an integral component of a decision support system is described. The case study approach is used to describe how Grambling State University (GSU) developed the model to improve its financial planning and budgeting processes. The model can be used for tactical and/or strategic planning. The model is…

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), developed by Abraham Wald, is one statistical model available for making mastery decisions during computer-based criterion referenced tests. The predictive validity of the SPRT was empirically investigated with two different and relatively large item pools with heterogeneous item parameters. Graduate…