Questions pertaining to beginning reading, success, and failure are addressed. The issues of concern are: (1) When reading begins? (2) What preschool activities seem to help certain children succeed as readers? (3) What characteristics and conditions are associated with reading failure in first grade? (4) What early experiences might help children avoid or minimize reading failure? and (5) Just as insurance companies can estimate actuarially an individual's risk of having an automobile accident, can a similar technology be developed to estimate a child's risk of reading failure? Answers to these questions are explored through available literature, history, and research. It is concluded that the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) could provide the needed large-scale, carefully sampled, designed, and controlled assessment of risk factors across all segments of the preschool population. Research based on NAEP might lead to more confident and accurate predictions that a given child is at risk to fail. If we know with some assurance that this child is likely to fail, it might be possible to design a way to intervene so as to avoid or minimize the devastating effects of reading failure. (LMO)