ERIC Number: ED676555
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2025-May
Pages: N/A
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: 0000-00-00
The Experimental Selection Correction Estimator: Using Experiments to Remove Biases in Observational Estimates. Working Paper 33817
Susan Athey; Raj Chetty; Guido Imbens
National Bureau of Economic Research
Researchers increasingly have access to two types of data: (i) large observational datasets where treatment (e.g., class size) is not randomized but several primary outcomes (e.g., graduation rates) and secondary outcomes (e.g., test scores) are observed and (ii) experimental data in which treatment is randomized but only secondary outcomes are observed. We develop a new method to estimate treatment effects on primary outcomes in such settings. We use the difference between the secondary outcome and its predicted value based on the experimental treatment effect to measure selection bias in the observational data. Controlling for this estimate of selection bias yields an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect on the primary outcome under a new assumption that we term "latent unconfoundedness," which requires that the same confounders affect the primary and secondary outcomes. Latent unconfoundedness weakens the assumptions underlying commonly used surrogate estimators. We apply our estimator to identify the effect of third grade class size on students' outcomes. Estimated impacts on test scores using OLS regressions in observational school district data have the opposite sign of estimates from the Tennessee STAR experiment. In contrast, selection-corrected estimates in the observational data replicate the experimental estimates. Our estimator reveals that reducing class sizes by 25% increases high school graduation rates by 0.7 percentage points. Controlling for observables does not change the OLS estimates, demonstrating that experimental selection correction can remove biases that cannot be addressed with standard controls.
Descriptors: Observation, Research Problems, Bias, Data Science, Grade 3, Class Size, Graduation Rate
National Bureau of Economic Research. 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398. Tel: 617-588-0343; Web site: http://www.nber.org
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Early Childhood Education; Elementary Education; Grade 3; Primary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: Chan Zuckerberg Initiative; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; Schmidt Futures; Office of Naval Research (ONR) (DOD); Harvard University; Amazon.com, Inc.
Authoring Institution: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Grant or Contract Numbers: N000141712131; N000141912468
Author Affiliations: N/A

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